Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
